A supercomputer analysis has predicted that France has the highest chance of winning among the eight teams that have advanced to the quarterfinals of the 2026 International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) World Cup in North America.
On Thursday, soccer statistics site Opta simulated the tournament outcomes, giving France a 27.32% probability of clinching the title – the highest among the quarterfinalists.
France stormed through the group stage with a perfect record, then dispatched Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32 and edged out Paraguay 1-0 in the Round of 16.
Their offensive firepower has been impressive, netting 14 goals in five matches, spearheaded by the dynamic duo of Kylian Mbappé with seven goals and Ousmane Dembélé with four.
Spain follows closely with a 21.33% chance of victory. Touted as a title contender from the outset, Spain has been quietly dominating the competition.
While not flashy, they’ve achieved a remarkable feat: they’re the only team to keep a clean sheet through all five matches from the group stage to the Round of 16.
Rounding out the top four are defending champions Argentina, led by top scorer Lionel Messi with eight goals, at 17.28%, and England, the birthplace of soccer, at 16.48%.
Norway, the surprise package of the tournament featuring the monster striker Erling Haaland, sits in fifth with a 6.57% chance. However, they’ve hit a snag with a cold virus spreading through the squad and had to relocate due to hotel safety concerns.
Switzerland (3.78%), Morocco (3.66%), and Belgium (3.58%) complete the quarterfinal lineup, ranking sixth, seventh, and eighth respectively in their chances of lifting the trophy.
The quarterfinal action kicks off on Friday at Boston Stadium, where France will take on Morocco.
The following day, Spain and Belgium will battle it out at Los Angeles Stadium. July 12 will see two more high-stakes matches: Norway vs. England at Miami Stadium, and Argentina vs. Switzerland at Kansas City Stadium, with all four teams vying for a coveted spot in the semifinals.
