Global pharmaceutical giants are facing potential revenue losses of up to 300 billion USD over the next five years due to patent expirations of key blockbuster drugs. In response to this patent cliff, these companies are restructuring their pipelines, focusing on multi-indication immunotherapies and next-generation cancer treatments.
According to industry reports, the global pharmaceutical market research firm Evaluate recently projected that by 2030, patent expirations of major blockbuster drugs such as Keytruda, Humira, and Eliquis will result in revenue losses equivalent to 3-4% of the entire pharmaceutical market.
Merck Sharp & Dohme (MSD) is expected to be the most affected, with a projected 7% revenue loss when Keytruda’s patent expires in 2028. Other major players, such as AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson (J&J), Roche, and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), are also facing potential revenue losses exceeding 30 billion USD each by 2030. The average loss for the top 25 pharmaceutical companies is estimated at 24 billion USD.
Sanofi’s Dupixent: Most Promising Non-GLP-1 Drug
In response, global pharmaceutical giants are focusing on developing drugs with multiple indications. Immunoinflammatory therapies are considered a key strategic area, as they can target various diseases with a single mechanism of action.
French pharmaceutical company Sanofi’s Dupixent has secured 15 indications, ranging from asthma to dermatitis. While GLP-1 class drugs dominate the top sales positions, Dupixent is regarded as the most promising non-GLP-1 medication. Sanofi’s revenue is projected to increase by an average of 6.6% annually, potentially reaching the sixth-highest sales position by 2030, primarily due to the success of Dupixent.
AbbVie’s Skyrizi, launched in 2019, has already secured four indications. The drug blocks the inflammatory cytokine interleukin-23 (IL-23) and can be used to treat various conditions, including psoriatic skin diseases, Crohn’s disease, and certain types of arthritis. It is expected to become the second-highest-selling drug globally by 2030.
In the oncology field, new drugs based on platform technologies such as antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and bispecific antibodies are gaining attention. Ivonescimab, co-developed by Summit Therapeutics and Akeso, is a bispecific antibody targeting both PD-1 and VEGF. It has been approved for treating non-small cell lung cancer in China, with projected peak sales of 27 billion USD. Daiichi Sankyo and AstraZeneca’s ADC treatment, Enhertu, is also expanding its indications for solid tumors, with expected sales exceeding 15 billion USD by 2030.
The field of neuroscience is also experiencing significant growth. While it’s not yet among the top pipelines, it has been a focal point for major mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as of 2025. Johnson & Johnson acquired Intra-Cellular Therapies, which developed the schizophrenia treatment Caplyta, for 14.6 billion USD. Similarly, BMS and AbbVie have acquired Karuna and Cerevel, respectively.
Post-Patent Expiration Strategies Will Determine Company Competitiveness
However, M&A activity has slowed somewhat this year due to potential changes in U.S. drug pricing policies and tariff regulations. A former CEO of a major pharmaceutical company told Evaluate that companies are likely to hold off on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for the next three to six months, waiting to see how the tariff system is restructured.
Recent M&A trends have focused on late-stage clinical assets or those already on the market, often including success milestone payment conditions. For instance, GSK signed a conditional contract worth up to 2 billion USD for its FGF21 Target drug, which is being developed for liver disease. Novartis acquired Regulus, which is developing Parabursen, a treatment for hereditary kidney disease, with additional payment conditions based on approval timelines.
An industry insider commented that global pharmaceutical giants are concentrating on multi-indication drugs in anticipation of blockbuster medication patent expirations, emphasizing that how these companies prepare for the post-expiration landscape will ultimately determine their future competitiveness.