North Korea is expected to complete its five-year defense development plan by 2025, and analysts suggest that until it achieves this goal, Pyongyang is unlikely to engage in dialogue with the United States. During Trump’s first term, North Korea declared the completion of its nuclear force before entering negotiations with the U.S., and this time, the conclusion of the five-year defense plan could serve as a key bargaining chip.
Kim Jong Un announced North Korea’s five-year defense development plan at the 8th Party Congress in 2021, outlining five key objectives: the development of hypersonic missiles, the production of ultra-large nuclear warheads, the development of solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), the development of nuclear submarines and underwater nuclear strategic weapons, and the deployment of military reconnaissance satellites.
North Korea aims to complete these objectives by the end of this year, but significant tasks remain unfinished. Hypersonic missile development appears to be in its final stages, as North Korea has conducted multiple test launches. Last July, North Korea launched two new tactical ballistic missiles, and South Korean military assessments indicate that Pyongyang has made progress in nuclear warhead miniaturization.
Solid-fuel ICBMs, which first appeared at the 75th-anniversary military parade in February 2023, have continued to be developed. The Hwasong-19 model was launched last October. However, progress on submarine-launched ICBMs is still considered insufficient.
The main challenges are nuclear submarines and reconnaissance satellites. North Korea has yet to unveil a nuclear-powered submarine. Additionally, it announced plans to launch three more after successfully launching its first reconnaissance satellite in November 2023. However, it failed in its May attempt, and no further attempts have been reported since.
Given this, experts believe North Korea is unlikely to talk with the U.S. until it has completed these five key objectives. Kim Jong Un will need to be internally convinced that North Korea has secured sufficient military capability before he can justify negotiations with the U.S.
Historically, North Korea has showcased its military prowess, particularly its nuclear capabilities, before engaging in major negotiations. This pattern was evident in November 2017 when Pyongyang declared the completion of its nuclear force before initiating talks with Washington.
On Saturday, North Korea reiterated that “our nuclear weapons are not a bargaining tool,” rejecting the possibility of denuclearization talks. That same day, Kim Jong Un, in a speech marking the country’s Military Foundation Day, reaffirmed his commitment to “further advancing North Korea’s nuclear capabilities,” directly targeting the U.S.
At present, North Korea appears to be concentrating on completing the final stages of its five-year defense plan. Additionally, it is expected to continue showcasing military achievements to reinforce its strategic position ahead of potential U.S.-North Korea negotiations.
Kim Gunn, a South Korean lawmaker from the ruling People Power Party and former chief negotiator on North Korea’s nuclear issues, commented, “During Trump’s first term, Kim Jong Un engaged in talks with the U.S. based on his confidence in North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. Since this year marks the final phase of the five-year defense development plan, North Korea will likely prioritize its completion before initiating negotiations with the U.S.”
