A recent analysis suggests that expecting regime change in North Korea is now outdated and that a paradigm shift in North Korea policy is necessary, based on the premise of long-term coexistence with the North.
Kim Won-sik, a research fellow at the Unification and Human Rights Research Department of the Institute for National Security Strategy, argued in an issue brief published on the 11th titled, The Era of Popular Sovereignty: The Need for a Paradigm Shift in North Korea Policy, that the newly inaugurated government of popular sovereignty has pledged to restore inter-Korean relations and transition toward reconciliation and cooperation through its election promises. To achieve this, he contends that a fundamental rethinking and overcoming of the post-Cold War paradigm—which has long dominated our approach to North Korea policy—is necessary.
The existing vision for peace on the Korean Peninsula was based on the expectation that the spread of democracy and market principles within North Korea could bring about peace. However, given the current international situation and North Korea’s circumstances, this expectation is no longer sustainable.
Kim highlighted several reasons why a new paradigm for North Korea policy is needed: the global spread of liberal democracy, which dominated the post-Cold War era, has already stalled; far-right politics are on the rise worldwide; and North Korea is rapidly strengthening its ties with Russia, creating a strategic environment that starkly contrasts with its earlier international isolation.
He emphasized that a new North Korea policy paradigm—responsive to today’s environment—must assume long-term coexistence with North Korea as a de facto nuclear power and anticipate prolonged competition between North and South Korea. He also noted that expectations for unification through North Korea’s liberalization serve as a cautionary tale, demonstrating the failure of the outdated post-Cold War North Korea policy paradigm.
Furthermore, referencing the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Iran conflict, the India-Pakistan clashes, and potential U.S.-China confrontation scenarios over Taiwan, he stressed that in this context our most urgent task is to prevent accidental military conflicts between North and South Korea and to ease the heightened tensions that have developed between them.
He identified the restoration of disrupted inter-Korean communication channels and the September 19 military agreement as the most pressing issues to address.
Kim concluded that the new government should use these tension-reduction measures as a starting point to continuously pursue a long-term vision for peaceful coexistence between North and South Korea. He added that hasty expectations for rapid changes in the North Korean regime or for immediate unification through market mechanisms or democratization should be set aside.
