The Freedom Edge joint military exercise, marking the first trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan operation under the Lee Jae-myung administration, along with the U.S.-South Korea combined nuclear and conventional integrated (CNI) tabletop exercise (TTX) Iron Mace, is scheduled to commence on Monday.
North Korea has responded with unprecedented hostility, exceeding its reaction to the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise held in August. On September 14, analysts suggested that North Korea’s unveiling of its new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-20, serves as a pretext for potential military provocations, including test launches.
Top officials, including Kim Yo-jong and Pak Jong-chon, Directly Condemned the Exercises as Aggressive War Games
On September 13, North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency published an editorial in Rodong Sinmun. It claimed that Freedom Edge and Iron Mace originate from the 2023 Camp David Agreement between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, as well as the nuclear operational guidelines established by the U.S. and South Korea last year. The editorial labeled these exercises as dangerous nuclear war drills devised by the former leaders of the three nations, asserting that the current situation demands an urgent strengthening of North Korea’s nuclear forces.
On September 14, Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers’ Party and sister of Kim Jong Un, together with Pak Jong-chon, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and the highest-ranking military official in North Korea, issued a joint statement. Their involvement underscores the gravity with which North Korea regards these joint exercises.
Kim Yo-jong warned that if the current leadership fully endorses and implements the dangerous schemes devised by their predecessors, we will interpret this as an unequivocal display of anti-North Korea hostility and a clear continuation of confrontational policies.
Pak cautioned that should hostile forces persist in flexing their military muscle, its responses will become increasingly forceful and unequivocal.
This reaction marks a significant departure from North Korea’s response to the UFS in August. While analysts had anticipated aggressive military provocations in response to the first joint exercise under the Lee administration and the second term of the Donald Trump administration, North Korea refrained from high-intensity actions such as nuclear missile launches. Apart from a statement by Defense Minister No Kwang-cheol on August 11, official responses were limited, with most reactions coming through media commentary.
North Korea, Emboldened by Support from China and Russia, Shifts to an Offensive Posture; A Launch of the New ICBM Hwasong-20 is Expected Later this Year
North Korea’s recent posturing coincides with Kim’s inaugural attendance at China’s 80th Victory Day celebrations earlier this month, highlighting the strengthening ties among North Korea, China, and Russia. Additionally, North Korea publicly unveiled what appears to be a strategy for the integrated development of its nuclear and conventional forces, referred to as the nuclear and conventional force advancement policy.
Through this trilateral alignment with China and Russia, North Korea appears to have secured tacit approval for enhancing its nuclear capabilities. Prior to Kim’s visit to China, North Korea disclosed the development of its new ICBM, the Hwasong-20, and claimed on September 8 that it had successfully developed a new engine for the missile, hinting at an imminent unveiling.
The ICBM represents North Korea’s nuclear deterrent against the U.S. mainland. Test-launching such a weapon would signal a major escalation in North Korea’s confrontational stance toward the U.S. In the current geopolitical climate, such a launch would symbolize the military dimension of the North Korea-China-Russia anti-U.S. alliance.
Intelligence suggests that North Korea plans to showcase the Hwasong-20 during the 80th anniversary military parade of the Workers’ Party on October 10, with its inaugural test launch expected around that time. North Korea’s vehement opposition to the U.S.-South Korea and U.S.-South Korea-Japan joint exercises is seen as a preemptive measure to deflect criticism of its aggressive military actions aimed at perfecting the Hwasong-20.
Given that China’s and Russia’s tacit approval and technological support underpin North Korea’s military provocations, the intensifying confrontation between the U.S.-South Korea-Japan alliance and the North Korea-China-Russia bloc could lead to the solidification of opposing security blocs in the Indo-Pacific region.
Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, stated that North Korea will accumulate justifications for its military actions by issuing warnings concerning Iron Mace and Freedom Edge. It may launch a package of provocations in response to the U.S.-South Korea-Japan joint exercises, potentially including tactical nuclear simulations, underwater provocations such as nuclear torpedo tests, and demonstrations of the new ICBM’s capabilities.