The National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported on Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has shown willingness to engage in dialogue with the U.S. They predict March next year could be a pivotal moment for U.S.-North Korea relations. The agency also assessed that Kim’s health appears stable.
Following a national intelligence briefing in Seoul, Park Sun-won of the Democratic Party and Lee Seong-kwon of the People Power Party, who serve on the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee, revealed that North Korea has been covertly preparing for talks with the U.S. through various channels.
Lee noted evidence suggesting Pyongyang has been analyzing the Biden administration’s North Korea team. The NIS detected subtle shifts in North Korea’s nuclear rhetoric, observing that Kim has moderated his stance on nuclear armament since hinting at conditional talks with the U.S. during the September 21 Supreme People’s Assembly.
Intelligence also indicates that Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui’s recent Russia visit was carefully weighed against potential U.S. dialogue. The NIS believes March could be crucial for possible U.S.-North Korea negotiations.
Regarding inter-Korean relations, North Korea maintains its two-state policy, strictly enforcing directives that prohibit contact with South Korean entities abroad and differentiate responses to the U.S. and South Korea, effectively blocking any avenue for improved ties.
The NIS predicts North Korea may amend its constitution next year to formalize the two-state theory.
Park noted a slight decrease in North Korea’s mentions of the South Korean government and a toning down of hostile rhetoric, suggesting a shift from confrontation to a more subdued phase.
On Kim’s health, Park reported that despite known underlying conditions, the leader appears to handle extensive travel and events without significant issues, indicating no major health concerns.
Kim is reportedly pursuing a self-styled cult of personality that surpasses his predecessors, installing new mosaic murals and creating unique badges.
Notably, Kim is glorifying his troop deployment to Russia as a major achievement, attempting to frame the recapture of Kursk from Ukraine as a new victory myth, reminiscent of 1950s propaganda. Plans for two new war museums in Pyongyang have also been detected.
Kim’s daughter, Ju-ae, expanded her role into diplomacy this year, solidifying her position as a potential successor. However, her public appearances have decreased since visiting China, returning to previous years’ levels. She’s reportedly been out of the public eye for 60 days since September 4.
Park suggested this could be to prevent succession discussions from becoming too prominent.
As North Korean military officials increase visits to Russia, signs of preparations for additional troop deployments continue. Intelligence suggests over 10,000 North Korean troops are currently stationed near the Russia-Ukraine border for security duties.
Lee reported that North Korea is leveraging its troop deployment to Russia and Kim’s China visit to strengthen ties with both nations while expanding relations with Global South countries.
He detailed that 10,000 North Korean troops are performing border security near Russia-Ukraine, with an additional 1,000 engineers deployed for mine clearance. About 5,000 construction troops have been moving to Russia since September for infrastructure projects.
The NIS is closely monitoring North Korea’s internal training and recruitment for potential additional deployments. They’re also tracking visits by North Korean military officials to Russia, watching for any transfer of sensitive technologies.
On North Korea-China relations, high-level exchanges continue, including the first visit by a Chinese premier in 16 years, maintaining momentum in normalizing ties.
Regarding North Korea’s defense sector, Lee stated that with Russian assistance, Pyongyang is enhancing missile guidance and precision. Rapid progress in drone development poses a significant security threat, prompting increased NIS intelligence efforts.
However, he noted that achieving operational hypersonic missiles and reconnaissance satellites will take considerable time, and underwater weapons development remains slow.
