South Korea and China recently reached an agreement to restore their relationship during a summit. However, experts caution that the government should not expect China to play an outsized role in addressing the North Korean issue.
In a report titled, The Significance and Challenges of the 2025 South Korea-China Summit, released on Friday, Lee Dong-kyu, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, warned that emphasizing China’s role in improving inter-Korean relations could backfire. He argued that this approach might lead China to showcase its cooperation with North Korea and use its relationship with Pyongyang as leverage to pressure and manipulate South Korea.
Lee predicted that China might demand South Korea prioritize its relationship with Beijing, which maintains friendly ties with North Korea, over its alliance with the United States if Seoul genuinely wants to improve inter-Korean relations.
He advised that instead of relying on China to facilitate inter-Korean dialogue, the South Korean government should highlight how North Korea’s security threats could undermine China’s multilateralism and economic cooperation initiatives. This approach, he suggested, would be more effective in compelling China to act responsibly.
China’s Priority: Establishing a Peace Mechanism on the Korean Peninsula, Not North Korean Denuclearization
Lee observed that during the South Korea-China summit on November 1, held alongside the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, President Lee Jae Myung proposed strengthening strategic communication between Seoul and Beijing to restart inter-Korean dialogue. He interpreted this as an attempt to gauge North Korea’s intentions through China or secure direct channels of communication with Pyongyang.
However, Lee cautioned that China is unlikely to respond as South Korea hopes. He emphasized that Beijing’s priority is not North Korean denuclearization but rather establishing a peace mechanism on the Korean Peninsula.
Lee anticipated that China’s strategy for building this peace mechanism would involve expanding high-level exchanges and trade with North Korea to demonstrate its influence. Simultaneously, Beijing would likely push for creating conditions conducive to North Korea-U.S. dialogue and inter-Korean talks.
Furthermore, he predicted that China would exploit North Korea’s reasonable security concerns as a pretext to demand the reduction or suspension of U.S.-South Korea and U.S.-South Korea-Japan joint military exercises. This approach, Lee concluded, is part of China’s broader strategy to delay U.S.-led regional security cooperation initiatives.
