North Korea marked its Missile Industry Day on Wednesday, commemorating the successful test launch of its new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-17. However, no significant military activities have been observed.
As of now, North Korean state media outlets, including Rodong Sinmun, have not published any articles mentioning Missile Industry Day. South Korea’s Ministry of Unification spokesperson Yoon Min Ho said on Monday that there were no notable developments from the North regarding this event.
Analysts suggest that Pyongyang is prioritizing domestic economic and civilian issues ahead of major internal events, such as the upcoming year-end plenary meeting and the 9th Party Congress early next year, while refraining from provocative external actions.
Professor Lim Eul Chul from Kyungnam University’s Far East Institute noted that Missile Industry Day is significant because it celebrates the Hwasong-17 launch, a major milestone in North Korea’s ICBM development program.
He added that given the numerous internal events currently underway in North Korea, the likelihood of additional military provocations remains low.
He added that with numerous internal events underway in North Korea, and given that the regime showcased its new Hwasong-20 ICBM during the 80th anniversary of the Workers’ Party last month, the likelihood of additional military provocations remains low.
Some experts point out that November 18, 2022, also marked the first public appearance of Kim Jong Un’s daughter, Ju Ae, suggesting that Missile Industry Day may serve a dual purpose in highlighting her presence on the national stage.
North Korea initially launched the Hwasong-17 on March 24, 2022, effectively ending its five-year moratorium on ICBM tests.
Following several test launches with mixed results, Pyongyang announced the successful final launch of the Hwasong-17 on November 18 of the same year. The Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that the missile traveled approximately 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), reached an altitude of about 6,100 kilometers (3,790 miles), and achieved a speed of around Mach 22.
During this test, North Korea employed a lofted trajectory to limit the missile’s range. Experts estimate that if launched at a standard angle of 30 to 45 degrees, the Hwasong-17 could potentially cover distances exceeding 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles), putting the entire U.S. mainland within its reach.
On November 5, 2023, North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly Standing Committee convened to officially designate November 18 as an annual commemorative day, marking the successful launch of the Hwasong-17 test.
Military analysts speculate that North Korea, which continues to emphasize the strengthening of its nuclear capabilities, may use Missile Industry Day as an annual opportunity for military demonstrations or provocations.
Recent rejections of dialogue proposals from the Trump administration, coupled with North Korea’s insistence on its irreversible nuclear status, have raised concerns about potential provocations aimed at the United States.
Professor Lim predicts that North Korea is likely to maintain a low profile in terms of external movements or messages directed at South Korea, the United States, or other nations until the conclusion of next year’s Party Congress.
