National Security Advisor Wi Sung-lac will visit Washington, D.C. on Tuesday to discuss the implementation of the joint fact sheet from the recent U.S.-South Korea summit in Gyeongju. As Seoul activates three task forces (TFs) focusing on enriched uranium, nuclear submarines, and defense spending for talks with Washington, there’s cautious optimism that Wi’s visit could lead to an agreement on forming bilateral working-level consultative bodies on Monday.
Diplomatic sources report that during his visit, Wi plans to meet with U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to discuss the implementation of key agreements in the fact sheet and future working-level consultation structures and schedules. On December 2, South Korea and the U.S. held a vice foreign ministers’ meeting in Washington, agreeing to swiftly launch working-level consultative bodies to implement summit agreements on nuclear energy, shipbuilding, and nuclear submarines.
The National Security Office has since established TFs in three areas: enriched uranium, nuclear submarines, and defense spending. First Deputy National Security Advisor Kim Hyun-jong stated at a press briefing on December 7 that the National Security Office oversees the process, with relevant ministries leading and supporting the TFs. He added that they’ve begun discussions with the U.S. this month on forming working-level consultative bodies, with visible results expected by the first half of next year.
Diplomatic circles believe the bilateral working-level consultative bodies will likely be based on these three TF frameworks.
If these bodies become operational, South Korea’s priority will be to act swiftly. Nuclear energy cooperation, including enriched uranium and nuclear submarines, is considered particularly complex. Establishing a clear negotiation structure and roadmap in the initial stages is crucial.
The dynamics and outcomes of the U.S. midterm elections in November could impact Donald Trump administration’s policy implementation. This underscores the importance of solidifying the framework for practical U.S.-South Korea consultations on the fact sheet early on.
Nuclear Agreement and Submarines Pose Challenges; Defense Spending Less Contentious
Diplomats identify revising or adjusting the nuclear agreement as the most significant hurdle. The current U.S.-South Korea nuclear agreement only allows South Korea to use low-enriched uranium below 20% with prior U.S. consent, with limited reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel for research. While Seoul continues discussions on easing these restrictions, analysts believe that given non-proliferation sentiments in the U.S., negotiations will remain challenging under the Trump administration.
Nuclear submarine construction also presents numerous issues for bilateral discussion. Fuel procurement is particularly complex, as the U.S. takes a conservative approach to overseas nuclear material transfers, necessitating prompt and thorough consultations. When AUKUS (Australia, UK, U.S.) was established in 2021, the U.S. promised Australia nuclear submarine technology and construction support, but completing the relevant U.S. domestic procedures took about three years.
In contrast, increasing defense spending is considered the least contentious issue between the allies. The fact sheet commits to expanding South Korea’s defense spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) as soon as possible, in line with legal requirements. This could be achieved by increasing defense spending 7-8% annually, which military and civilian analysts view as manageable in the medium to long term.
During Wi’s U.S. visit, discussions will likely cover North Korea policy coordination and collaboration, as well as consultations on the Korean Peninsula peace process that Seoul plans to pursue next year.
On December 7, Wi announced plans to promote dialogue with North Korea next year to advance peace on the Korean Peninsula, emphasizing the need for close communication with the U.S.
However, on November 25, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires ad interim Kevin Kim expressed concerns about conciliatory measures toward North Korea during a meeting with Unification Minister Chung Dong-young. He stated that sanctions should be maintained and pressure on human rights issues continued. The U.S. also emphasized the importance of a unified North Korea policy, likely in response to perceived divisions within the South Korean government.
Consequently, there’s speculation that Wi may engage in extensive communication with U.S. officials on North Korea policy coordination, in addition to discussions on fact sheet follow-up actions.