The National Diplomatic Academy’s 2026 International Situation Outlook report, released on Tuesday, forecasts a potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un next year, potentially rekindling U.S.-North Korea dialogue.
The report anticipates that in 2026, President Trump will maintain his top-down approach to North Korea. It suggests that shared interests in holding a summit, peaceful coexistence, and denuclearization slightly increase the likelihood of a U.S.-North Korea summit.
Regarding North Korea’s internal affairs, the report indicates that the regime is pursuing a strategy to downplay its economic challenges by emphasizing its elevated status as a nuclear power. It also notes the regime’s efforts to bolster internal cohesion through an aggressive, government-wide strategy leveraging its nuclear status.
The report predicts that North Korea will intensify policies to manage public discontent stemming from troop deployments to Russia and natural disasters. It suggests the regime will use expanded diplomacy to improve economic conditions and promote social stability, aiming to maintain public support.
The report specifically anticipates that if North Korea establishes a new defense and economic development roadmap during the 9th Workers’ Party Congress in 2026, swift implementation measures will follow.
While warning that North Korea will continue to increase nuclear material production and accelerate new missile development and deployment in 2026, the report suggests that despite military-technical justifications for a seventh nuclear test, North Korea may exercise restraint due to its relations with China and the U.S.
The report assesses that inter-Korean dialogue is unlikely to resume due to North Korea’s persistent hostile two-state theory and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Regarding U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, the report states that to strengthen its containment of China, the U.S. will gradually reduce its involvement in Europe and the Middle East while enhancing diplomatic engagement and military presence in Asia.
It predicts that China will respond firmly to U.S. pressure while cooperating on stabilization efforts. The report suggests that the anti-U.S. alliance among North Korea, China, and Russia will continue to focus on bilateral relationships rather than a tight trilateral alignment. It also anticipates increased security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan as motivations to counter China strengthen.
However, the report considers large-scale military conflicts on the Korean Peninsula or in Taiwan unlikely. It suggests that while U.S.-China competition may intensify, overall stability in East Asia will be maintained.
On South Korea-China relations, the report notes that 2025 provided opportunities to redefine relations with South Korea’s new government. For 2026, it predicts cooperation on Korean Peninsula peace, stability, and inter-Korean exchanges, with expectations for a shuttle summit coinciding with China’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
Regarding Japan, the report foresees increasing conservatism and political uncertainty in 2026, with potential for elections and political realignment. It warns that a minority government could lead to routine coalition-building and political maneuvering, potentially causing political instability.
The report states that the Sanae Takaichi Cabinet will likely advocate for a strong Japan in international affairs, focusing on managing conflicts with China to prevent further deterioration.
