North Korea has maintained silence for a week, refraining from issuing additional messages to the U.S. despite President Donald Trump’s repeated overtures for dialogue. This is seen as an attempt to raise the stakes for negotiations while observing the U.S.’s next moves, given that North Korea’s options have expanded due to advancements in its nuclear capabilities and strengthened cooperation with China and Russia compared to 2018-2019.
Experts suggest that even if future talks materialize, North Korea is likely to pursue improved relations based on its nuclear power status, rather than following the previous denuclearization for sanctions relief model. Some observers warn that if President Trump postpones denuclearization discussions to facilitate a summit, it could inadvertently legitimize North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
On August 19, Kim Yo Jong, deputy director of the Workers’ Party, issued a statement, followed by a message aimed at South Korea the next day, accompanied by the launch of over ten short-range ballistic missiles. Since then, state media outlets like Rodong Sinmun and the Korean Central News Agency have not published any additional messages directed at the U.S.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, told News1 that Kim’s remarks, which dismissed official communication while acknowledging a good personal relationship, indicate that North Korea is neither closing nor opening the door to dialogue, but rather waiting to see how the U.S. will respond.
Analysts attribute North Korea’s more relaxed attitude to changes in its external environment. Last year, trade between North Korea and China rebounded to 98.1% of pre-COVID-19 levels, and high-level exchanges have increased since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea in June.
North Korea is also expanding military and economic cooperation with Russia through troop deployments and arms support. It is estimated that North Korea has supplied Russia with over 15 million rounds of ammunition, equivalent to 152mm shells. In return, North Korea may have gained access to operational data from the Ukraine conflict and Russian military technology and components.
The North Korean economy has shown growth of over 3% for three consecutive years. Last year’s real gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed 2017 levels, when sanctions against North Korea intensified. This suggests a reduced urgency to negotiate sanctions relief with the U.S. compared to the time of the Hanoi summit.
Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, explained that while North Korea was all-in on dialogue with the U.S. in 2018-2019, it now finds itself in a position where such urgency is unnecessary. He added that shifts in the international landscape have allowed North Korea to adopt a more patient stance, waiting to see if the U.S. will signal a definitive change in its approach.
North Korea’s strategic value has also increased for both China and Russia. For China, North Korea serves as a buffer zone to maintain influence over the Korean Peninsula. China also needs to keep North Korea within its sphere of influence as it leans towards Russia. For Russia, North Korea is a valuable partner, supplying troops and ammunition for the Ukraine conflict and cooperating militarily to counter Western influence. Analysts suggest that North Korea is leveraging this dynamic to enhance its negotiating power with the U.S.
During the 2019 Hanoi summit, North Korea proposed partial denuclearization, offering to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for major sanctions relief, which the U.S. rejected. While previous negotiations centered on exchanging denuclearization measures for sanctions relief, North Korea now presents its nuclear status as a precondition for talks. Meanwhile, President Trump has indicated willingness to reduce joint military exercises with South Korea and expressed interest in a summit this year, awaiting North Korea’s response.
Possibility of Arms Control Talks Without Denuclearization; September Message From Kim Jong Un Anticipated
Having bolstered its nuclear capabilities and secured alternative pathways through China and Russia, North Korea can now demand a higher price for engaging in negotiations with the U.S. Analysts suggest that the goal of these negotiations has shifted from exchanging partial denuclearization for sanctions relief and economic benefits to fundamentally redefining its relationship with the U.S. as a nuclear power.
Hong emphasized that North Korea’s current objective is not a transactional negotiation where it gives up part of its nuclear capabilities in exchange for concessions, but rather improving its relationship with the U.S. He explained that for the U.S. to improve relations with a nuclear-armed North Korea would essentially amount to acknowledging its nuclear status.
Even if the U.S. doesn’t officially recognize North Korea as a nuclear state, a summit resulting in a joint statement that omits denuclearization while focusing on improving relations could effectively endorse North Korea’s nuclear status. This scenario could mark a significant turning point in North Korea’s strategy to normalize its nuclear capabilities, which it has pursued since declaring the completion of its nuclear arsenal in 2017.
North Korea is expected to demand recognition of its nuclear state status as a precondition for any summit. Even if it engages in dialogue, it is likely to prioritize freezing or reducing its nuclear program and mitigating threats, rather than pursuing complete denuclearization, while seeking to improve its relationship with the U.S.
Professor Yang noted that even if President Trump desires a meeting with Kim Jong Un, he must go beyond creating a favorable atmosphere and present concrete measures that address North Korea’s demands. This explains why North Korea is patiently waiting for U.S. actions, unlike its approach in 2018-2019.
Attention is also focused on whether Kim Jong Un will clarify North Korea’s stance toward the U.S. in a speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly in September. This event, where the supreme leader typically outlines domestic and foreign policy directions, could provide crucial insights into North Korea’s assessment of future negotiations with the U.S.