Israel announced the targeted assassination of Ali Larijani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, on Tuesday. While this appears to be another casualty in the ongoing conflict, analysts on Wednesday suggest it highlights the diverging interests of the U.S. and Israel in this war.
The Israeli Defense Ministry confirmed that the forces eliminated Larijani. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also officially acknowledged Larijani’s death, stating he was killed along with his son, aides, and security detail. Notably, the U.S. made no announcement or verification during this operation.
Middle East experts in the U.S. view Larijani as a diplomatic achiever who built his reputation through successful negotiations. They describe him as a pragmatist who played a crucial role in mediating between moderates and hardliners, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Larijani was instrumental in passing the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) between the U.S. and Iran, focusing on finding common ground with the West.
In June last year, when the U.S. executed Operation Midnight Hammer, destroying three major Iranian nuclear facilities, Larijani persuaded Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to negotiate with the U.S., despite Khamenei’s calls for total resistance.
Following the so-called 12-Day War between Iran and Israel last June, Larijani was appointed Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, maintaining Khamenei’s trust. Some analysts believe Larijani’s influence moderated Khamenei’s stance during confrontations with the Donald Trump administration. After Ali Khamenei’s death on February 28, Larijani effectively acted as interim Supreme Leader until Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as successor.
Some believe Larijani led the negotiation faction while competing fiercely with IRGC-centered hardliners over succession and future policy directions. Reports suggest Larijani opposed the IRGC’s power consolidation, warning it could lead to military dictatorship.
He maintained a close relationship with moderate President Pezeshkian. On March 7, Larijani reportedly advised Pezeshkian to apologize for Iran’s attacks on Gulf states and promise to prevent future incidents.
Israel focuses on eliminating the IRGC, diverging from the U.S. approach of seeking an exit strategy
Given Larijani’s role in Iran’s negotiation faction, U.S. analysts emphasize the need to consider whether the U.S. was involved in planning this operation with Israel.
If both sides coordinated behind the scenes, it could indicate that both Israel and the U.S. have decided to focus on eliminating Iranian leadership, potentially prolonging the conflict.
Israel aims to eradicate Iran’s hardline factions, particularly the IRGC, through this war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Larijani’s elimination, stating that this operation aimed to destabilize the Iranian regime and provide an opportunity for the Iranian people to oust the current government, reaffirming that complete regime change in Iran is the ultimate goal. Experts predict this could lead to prolonged measures, including ground troop deployments.
Conversely, if Israel conducted this operation unilaterally without U.S. consultation, analysts suggest Israel may have eliminated the negotiation faction’s leader to achieve its ultimate goal, potentially preventing backchannel negotiations between Iran and the U.S.
Since the early stages of the Middle East crisis, prevailing analyses indicate that President Trump launched airstrikes against Iran at Israel’s urging. Many experts believe the U.S. aims to reduce Iran’s oil control and Middle East influence, differing from Israel’s approach of physically eliminating hardliners. The U.S. has demonstrated a different strategy by targeting critical oil transport routes and bombing the Hargre Island oil export base, supporting this view.
Professor Park Won-gon from Ewha Womans University stated that if the plan involved assassinating a key Iranian leader, the U.S. and Israel likely shared information in advance. However, their perspectives on the same operation may differ. While Israel aims to completely dismantle the Iranian regime, the U.S. prioritizes ending the war quickly. Park added that the U.S. might have supported the attack on Larijani to undermine Iran’s will to fight.
