With the November 3 U.S. midterm elections just over 40 days away, the Democratic Party is projected to have a strong chance of reclaiming the House of Representatives from Republican control. The Senate race remains a tight contest, with Democrats holding a slight edge in their bid to regain control. While the elections are unlikely to dramatically alter U.S. foreign policy, analysts noted on Monday that the redistribution of power in Congress could impact the pace and pathways for addressing U.S.-South Korea issues.
Kim Min-jeong, director of the Advanced Technology Strategy Center at the National Security Strategy Institute, a think tank under the National Intelligence Service, released a report titled, 2026 U.S. Midterm Election Polling Landscape and Implications. The report highlights that recent polls show the Democratic Party holding a 6% advantage in most party support surveys, mirroring the political climate just before Democrats gained 41 House seats in 2018.
Major nonpartisan forecasting organizations generally predict a high likelihood of Democrats reclaiming the House. Kim also noted that the probability of Democrats regaining the Senate stands at approximately 57%.
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have plummeted to the low to mid-30s. Surveys cited in the report indicate that support for his tariff policies is at 34%, while approval for his economic response sits at a mere 32%. Moreover, a staggering 71% of respondents negatively rated his handling of inflation.
However, Kim cautioned against the tendency of foreign media to directly link Trump’s declining personal approval ratings to policy backlash or a Democratic landslide, asserting that the reality is more nuanced.
The report suggests that the rally-around-the-flag effect from the Iran war has absorbed much of the economic blame directed at the Republican Party. Kim emphasized that it’s challenging to predict the midterm election outcome based solely on approval ratings.
While the Iran war may temporarily benefit Republicans through this unifying effect, Kim predicts that a prolonged conflict leading to rising oil prices and inflation could ultimately backfire on the ruling party.
Conversely, the report posits that if negotiations to end the Middle Eastern conflict stabilize oil prices and undecided voters rally behind Republicans at the last minute, the Republican Party could maintain control of both the House and Senate.
Kim stressed that many aspects of U.S. foreign policy relevant to South Korea will likely continue regardless of the election results.
Both parties largely share a hardline stance toward China. Within the Democratic Party, an increasing number of lawmakers are criticizing the Trump administration’s tariff costs while advocating for restrictions on Chinese investments and technology access in the U.S. Kim analyzed that a change in majority parties is unlikely to reset the U.S.-China trade environment.
However, specific tariff levels and the Trump dividend proposal funded by tariff revenues remain contentious. Kim noted that the Supreme Court’s ruling limiting tariff authority could spark further legal disputes.
North Korea policy has shown continuity rather than partisan conflict. However, with President Trump expressing willingness to meet again with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, potential changes in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s composition could affect the reauthorization and budget allocation for the Otto Warmbier Act or the North Korean Human Rights Act.
A shift in House majority could impact the pace of addressing U.S.-South Korea issues. Kim noted that Democrats regaining the House would likely expand the administration’s investigative capabilities, potentially affecting the progress of bilateral issues requiring ongoing attention and resources, such as trade negotiations and appointments.
If Democrats reclaim the House, congressional investigations and oversight of the Trump administration may intensify. This could force the administration to allocate more resources to congressional responses, potentially impacting ongoing U.S.-South Korea issues that require continuous coordination, like trade negotiations.
The Senate’s direction will play a crucial role in managing alliances, shaping Indo-Pacific policies, and handling treaties and key confirmations. Kim emphasized its direct impact on alliance management and Indo-Pacific strategy.
With Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s decision not to seek re-election, the Democratic ranking member position on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is now open. Kim urged monitoring not only the majority party’s direction but also the future committee leadership roles of newly elected senators.