North Korea appears to have chosen bloc diplomacy with Russia over participating in multilateral diplomatic platforms involving South Korea, the U.S., Japan, and China. Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui opted to skip the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) in the Philippines this week, instead visiting Russia.
According to the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers’ Party, Choe arrived in Moscow on July 18 at the invitation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Diplomatic observers had been anticipating Choe’s potential attendance at the ARF, the only multilateral forum in the region with North Korean participation. The last North Korean Foreign Minister to attend the ARF was Ri Yong-ho in 2018, coinciding with North Korea’s suspension of dialogue with the U.S. and its pivot towards Russia and China-centered bloc diplomacy.
Speculation arose about North Korea’s possible return to multilateral diplomacy after Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan visited North Korea in May and invited Choe to the ARF, potentially signaling expanded engagement with the U.S. and South Korea.
However, it appears North Korea will continue to boycott ASEAN-related meetings, including this year’s ARF. Government sources report no indications of North Korean participation in the ARF.
Last year, North Korea also skipped the ARF, instead inviting Lavrov to Pyongyang immediately after the forum to showcase their close ties. This year’s actions suggest a similar strategy.
As Russia is also an ARF participant, there are suggestions that Moscow may advocate for North Korea’s interests by including favorable messages regarding denuclearization in the ARF’s statements.
Choe’s visit to Russia follows recent high-level exchanges commemorating the 65th anniversary of the North Korea-China friendship treaty, established after their summit last month. This underscores North Korea’s continued prioritization of its relationships with Russia and China.
During her visit, Choe is expected to reaffirm the focus on military cooperation between the two countries and emphasize friendly relations. She may also meet with President Vladimir Putin to discuss plans for a summit involving Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, analyzed that following Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea, Kim will likely seek to showcase diplomatic achievements through his visit to Russia. North Korea aims to leverage China and Russia’s strengths while forming a bloc to counter the U.S., South Korea, and Japan through pendulum diplomacy.
Yang Moo-jin, a distinguished professor at the University of North Korean Studies, observed that after normalizing relations with China, North Korea’s strategic position has improved. It appears that North Korea is becoming a core component of the North Korea-China-Russia alliance in response to the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.