A recent poll shows that public opinion on whether the Constitutional Court should uphold or dismiss the impeachment motion against South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has narrowed. The ruling People Power Party has slightly edged ahead of the Democratic Party in party support ratings, though still within the margin of error.
On Wednesday, a survey conducted by Ace Research for Newsis asked 1,000 adults aged 18 and older about their views on Yoon’s impeachment motion. The results showed 51.4% believe it should be upheld, while 46.9% think it should be dismissed. Only 1.8% were undecided. This survey was conducted right after the Lunar New Year and revealed a 9.8 percentage point drop in support for impeachment compared to late December’s poll (61.2%). Conversely, support for dismissal rose by 9.9 percentage points from 37% five weeks ago, indicating a significant shift in public opinion.
Regionally, the Yeongnam and Chungcheong areas favored dismissal. In Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang, 56.2% supported dismissal versus 43.2% for upholding. Daegu and North Gyeongsang showed 51.7% for dismissal and 47.4% for upholding. Daejeon, Chungcheong, Sejong, and Gangwon had 52.3% for dismissal and 27.1% for upholding. In contrast, the capital region and Honam showed more support for upholding the motion. In Seoul, 52% favored upholding, while 45.2% supported dismissal. In Incheon and Gyeonggi, 55.3% supported upholding, while 42.7% supported dismissal, and in Gwangju, Jeolla, and Jeju, 58.6% supported upholding, while 38.2% favored dismissal.
The survey also indicated that the People Power Party has recently gained ground, surpassing the Democratic Party within the margin of error in party support. In the same poll, the People Power Party’s support rate reached 43.7%, while the Democratic Party stood at 39.7%.
The 4.0 percentage point gap between the parties falls within the margin of error (±3.1%). Compared to late December’s poll, the People Power Party increased by 8 percentage points, while the Democratic Party dropped by 0.7 points, marking a reversal in their standings.
Ace Research attributes the rise in support for the People Power Party to factors such as the impeachment of Acting President Han Duck Soo, arrest warrants for Yoon issued by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials and the courts, and legal risks faced by Democratic Party leader Lee Jae Myung. They suggest that recent consolidation among moderate conservatives likely influenced these approval ratings.
This survey used random sampling with proportional allocation by region, gender, and age, employing a 100% automated response method via wireless RDD. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a 4.5% response rate. For more details, refer to the Central Election Polling Review Committee’s website.