As evidence emerges of North Korean troops being deployed to the Ukraine conflict, the international community is grappling with how to respond.
NATO, which has thus far limited its support to providing weapons to Ukraine due to concerns about Russian retaliation and escalation, is now revisiting discussions about potential troop deployment. Meanwhile, South Korea mentioned for the first time about the possibility of supplying lethal weapons.
On Wednesday, concerns were raised that if the pro-Ukraine coalition implements a widespread physical counter-response, it could lead to irreversible changes in the security landscape of both Europe and the Korean Peninsula.
With indications that North Korea has begun participating in the Russia-Ukraine war, discussions about NATO troop deployment—a red line set by Russia—and South Korea’s potential supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine are gaining momentum.
In February, French President Emmanuel Macron stirred a controversy by stating that troop deployment to Ukraine could not be ruled out. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister has now called for a reconsideration of Macron’s proposal, bringing Western discussions about troop deployment into the spotlight.
South Korea has indicated it will implement phased measures corresponding to Russia-North Korea military cooperation, raising the possibility of providing lethal weapons to Ukraine for the first time.
The key question now is whether these discussions will translate into action. Analysts suggest that NATO lacks a clear justification for intervention in the Ukraine war, given that Ukraine is not a NATO member.
Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, stated, “Western NATO countries are very concerned about the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons.” He noted a widespread sense of war fatigue in the West, with many believing that direct involvement in the conflict does not align with national interests, leading him to predict a low likelihood of NATO’s intervention.
For South Korea, which is considering providing lethal weapons, crossing Russia’s red line carries significant concerns.
Supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine could eliminate any justification for preventing Russia from providing North Korea with advanced strategic weapons technology, such as ICBMs or nuclear submarines. Given the heightened need to respond to North Korea’s escalating tensions, South Korea is reviewing whether it has sufficient stockpiles of 155mm (6.1-inch) artillery shells to support Ukraine.
There are calls for caution, as the level of weapons provided to Ukraine could be perceived as South Korea’s direct involvement in the war.
Hong emphasized, “If we provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, it could lead to an irreversible level of hostility with Russia. The current framework of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan opposing North Korea may shift to a new dynamic including both Russia and North Korea, significantly altering the geopolitical landscape in Northeast Asia.”
