A new forecast suggests that the U.S. Clarity Act, a bill aimed at structuring the virtual asset market, is on track for final passage this July.
This prediction comes from Tiger Research, a Web3 research firm, in their recently published Clarity Act Analysis Report.
The report emphasizes the tight timeline, with only about 11 weeks left before Congress breaks for recess in early August. It notes that President Donald Trump has set an ambitious target of July 4 for signing the bill into law.
Analysts believe that significant progress has been made on the contentious issue of interest payments on stablecoins, increasing the likelihood of the bill’s passage by the end of July.
The proposed compromise would prohibit interest payments for simply holding stablecoins but allow rewards tied to actual activities such as payments, transactions, and staking. According to the report, the bill outlines specific cases where stablecoin interest payments would be permissible, including payments, governance voting, staking, and USDC transactions.
If passed, the bill would also open up avenues for legal token issuance. Companies could sell tokens to U.S. investors without SEC registration for up to 50 million USD annually or 10% of their circulating supply, whichever is greater, with a cumulative cap of 200 million USD.
Moreover, the legislation would prevent tokens from being automatically classified as securities merely because they include governance rights or staking yield features. It would also limit the SEC’s ability to reverse court decisions that have ruled a token is not a security.
The bill includes provisions to exempt certain decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols from regulation. Fully decentralized DeFi platforms may be excluded from regulatory oversight. However, this exemption would not apply if key powers, such as approval keys or upgrade authority, are concentrated in specific individuals or organizations.
Looking ahead, the report identifies two key sectors likely to gain traction after the bill’s passage: activity-based reward businesses and legal token issuance infrastructure.
Activity-based reward businesses, where exchanges and platforms incentivize user trading activities, are expected to help retain assets and potentially spawn new revenue models beyond simple fee competition.
The legal token issuance sector is also highlighted as an area with significant growth potential. Issuers are expected to develop Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions to streamline complex procedures like customer verification (KYC) and disclosures. Meanwhile, venture capitalists and advisory firms are likely to evolve into token investment banks, offering comprehensive support from token structure design to legal compliance.
In related news, Tiger Research recently signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Smilegate Asset Management to promote public awareness and understanding of digital asset information.