North Korea claims to have successfully launched a tactical ballistic missile equipped with a large warhead. There is some discrepancy in the analysis and assertions between North and South Korea regarding the missile’s range and launch success. It currently seems likely that North Korea is engaging in deliberate deception and showmanship.
On the 2nd, the Korean Central News Agency claimed that the test launch of the new tactical ballistic missile Hwasong-11da-4.5, equipped with a 4.5-ton super-large warhead, was “conducted successfully.” It also stated that it aimed to “confirm flight stability and target accuracy with a maximum range of 310 miles and a minimum range of 56 miles.” This is the first time North Korea has announced a test launch of a tactical ballistic missile equipped with a 4.5-ton super-large warhead. Typically, the warhead of a ballistic missile is around 1,102 lbs, but large ballistic missiles are developed to increase destructive power and expand the kill radius.
North Korea claimed to have launched a ballistic missile equipped with a 2.5-ton warhead in March 2021, which suggests that they are developing a more destructive ballistic missile than before.
However, this North Korean announcement differs somewhat from the analysis of South Korean military authorities. Firstly, the ranges of the two missiles announced by North Korea are 310 miles at maximum range and 56 miles at minimum range. However, the ranges announced by the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff are 373 miles and 75 miles, respectively.
In the case of the first ballistic missile, the South Korean military considered it landing in the sea off Chongjin, North Hamgyong Province, which differs from the military’s analysis that it should have landed inland according to North Korea’s claimed range. It is highly unlikely to conduct a ballistic missile test launch inland since it would inevitably cause significant damage if it fell in a residential area.
Also, regarding the second launched ballistic missile, the Joint Chiefs of Staff judged it as a failure, failing to reach the altitude corresponding to a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) due to the possibility of abnormal flight in the initial stage. The fact that 75 miles northeast of Changyon, South Hwanghae Province is also inland and near Pyongyang makes North Korea’s claim less convincing.
It was pointed out that North Korea is unlikely to have successfully developed a 4.5-ton warhead at this stage, considering their current technology.
North Korea reported this missile launch only to external media such as the Korean Central News Agency, rather than the domestic media such as the Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper of the Worker’s Party distributed to the residents. They also did not release any related photos, implying that the results were not satisfactory.
There is also a possibility that North Korea considered the South Korean military would discover the weak points through additional analysis when the photos were released.
On June 26, North Korea also announced the success of multiple warhead separation and guidance adjustment tests, releasing photos through the Rodong Sinmun the next day. However, through additional analysis, the South Korean military refuted that North Korea used or manipulated past photos as a deception operation.
The accuracy of North Korea’s technology and South Korean military’s analysis will be confirmed again this month. North Korea reported plans to conduct tests this month to confirm the 155-mile medium-range flight characteristics, hitting accuracy, and explosive power of the super-large warhead of Hwasong-11da-4.5.
Senior Research Fellow Hong Min of the Korea Institute for National Unification analyzed, “When North Korea launched the Hwasong-11da type on March 25, 2021, they claimed the range was 373 miles, but the South Korean military announced it was 280 miles, suggesting a difference,” adding, “Whether this is a problem of identification due to irregularity or an exaggeration can be more accurately determined by the additional launch this month.”
