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Pope Leo XIV vs. Trump: Who Will Win the Battle for Catholic Voters in 2026?

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Pope Leo XIV has taken a firm stance against President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration policies and has also voiced opposition to a potential U.S.-Iran conflict, intensifying the rift between the world’s foremost political leader and its preeminent religious figure.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Tuesday that this situation heavily favors the Pope, who holds a lifetime position, unlike the term-limited U.S. president. The publication also noted that the Catholic Church, once a key Republican support base, could potentially turn against Trump.

/ Capture from WSJ
/ Capture from WSJ

On April 7, Pope Leo XIV strongly condemned President Trump’s threats to destroy Iranian civilization, declaring them truly unacceptable and asserting that attacks on civilian infrastructure clearly violate international law.

Leo XIV, the first American pope, has repeatedly criticized Trump’s stringent immigration policies in the past.

In response, Trump claimed that Pope Leo XIV fails to grasp the Iranian nuclear threat, insisting that the pontiff should refrain from commenting on war. Notably, Trump asserted without evidence that if it weren’t for him, he wouldn’t even be pope.

The WSJ assessed that this conflict between the Pope and Trump is one that the president cannot win.

The Pope’s lifetime appointment contrasts sharply with the U.S. president’s term limits.

Moreover, the Pope enjoys broad support within the Catholic Church. While former Pope Francis garnered widespread backing from the faithful due to his humble demeanor, Leo’s support within the church hierarchy is even more substantial.

Political scientist Ryan Burge from the University of Washington noted that many Catholic voters who supported Trump are perplexed by his confrontation with the Pope.

Catholics constitute about one-fifth of the American electorate. Historically, their votes have been nearly evenly split in presidential elections, but in the last election, approximately 56% supported Trump, establishing a strong base of support for him.

The WSJ predicts that if the Catholic Church withdraws its support from Trump, he could face significant political repercussions.

The WSJ also highlighted early signs of this shift, citing a March Fox News poll that showed 52% of Catholic respondents opposing Trump’s policies.

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