The Donald Trump administration in the U.S. released the full text of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran on Wednesday, which includes a controversial provision limiting free passage through the Strait of Hormuz to 60 days. This raises concerns that the U.S. may tacitly allow Iran to impose tolls after the 60-day period.
The South Korean government plans to prioritize communication with Iran to ensure that as many South Korean vessels and crew members as possible can exit the strait within the 60-day window. However, with over 1,000 ships from around the world currently stranded in the strait, there’s a risk that Korean vessels may face delays due to prioritization issues. Furthermore, sea mines laid by Iran during the conflict could pose additional challenges for ships attempting to leave.
On Wednesday, the White House announced that President Trump had signed the 14-article MOU with Iran. International media outlets, including CNN and Axios, confirmed that both the U.S. and Iran had completed electronic signatures before signing the physical document. Iranian state media also verified the signing by leaders of both nations.
The most significant provision in this MOU concerns the Strait of Hormuz. Article 5 mandates that Iran must guarantee free passage for commercial ships in both directions without tolls for 60 days. Concurrently, Iran is required to discuss future management systems and maritime services for the strait with Oman and Gulf countries. This has led to speculation that Iran may impose fees under the guise of maritime service or management costs after the 60-day period.
As a result, analysts suggest that contrary to President Trump’s previous assertions that the Strait of Hormuz would remain permanently open for free passage after signing the MOU, the U.S. has largely conceded to Iran’s demands for management rights over the strait.
The South Korean government reportedly aims to expedite the evacuation of South Korean vessels and citizens trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. While they plan to coordinate with the international community regarding changes in the situation after the 60-day period, the immediate priority is to evacuate stranded vessels during the agreed-upon free passage window. Currently, 24 South Korean-flagged ships and 138 Korean crew members remain stranded in the Persian Gulf area of the strait.
When Iran initiated its maritime blockade on February 28, 26 ships were stranded. However, on May 20, the Universal Winner, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) owned by HMM, became the first to exit the strait and dock at Ulsan Port. Subsequently, an LNG carrier from SK Shipping also managed to leave the strait on June 11, reducing the number of stranded vessels to 24.
Despite these developments, concerns persist that South Korean vessels may face difficulties in swiftly exiting the strait, given that approximately 1,000 ships from various countries remain in the area.
Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), previously stated that about 1,000 vessels were waiting. However, some experts speculate that the actual number could be higher if we include ships that have deactivated their tracking devices to avoid potential attacks.
Additionally, sea mines laid by Iran during the conflict further complicate navigation. Ships will likely need to either navigate around the mines by following the coasts of Oman or Iran or wait until mine-clearing operations are completed.
Article 5 of the newly released MOU specifies that the passage of commercial vessels will commence immediately, taking into account the need for removing technical and military obstacles imposed by Iran and mine clearance, to be implemented within 30 days. This suggests that approximately half of the 60-day free passage period will be dedicated to mine-clearing operations, leading to predictions that South Korean ships may not be able to exit the strait for about a month.
Even if the evacuation of Korean vessels from the Strait of Hormuz proceeds smoothly, concerns remain that if Iran begins imposing tolls after the 60-day period, it could take considerable time to restore energy supply chains to pre-war levels. Some experts warn that the long-term energy supply burden could potentially exceed that experienced during the conflict. They recommend that the South Korean government engage in close diplomatic communication with Iran to better understand its intentions and gain leverage in future negotiations.
Professor Min Jeong-hoon from the National Diplomatic Academy stated that from Iran’s perspective, imposing significant tolls on vessels from other countries immediately following a ceasefire would carry various diplomatic risks. Therefore, it is crucial to establish effective communication channels with Iran within the 60-day window.
