The U.S. military is set to revolutionize its force planning process by shifting from manual evaluations to artificial intelligence (AI)-powered simulations for predicting future capability requirements.
On Monday, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced a research initiative to implement an AI-assisted system for military capability assessments.
Capability assessment is a critical component of the JCS’s joint combat development system. It involves quantifying military capabilities based on realistic threat scenarios and identifying gaps in force requirements.
This process combines quantitative analysis using wargaming and agent-based modeling (ABM) simulations with qualitative research-based analysis. The JCS aims to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of this traditionally manual process through AI integration.
To maximize AI’s impact, the JCS plans to increase the proportion of quantitative analysis. The Korea Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA) reports that the 2025 capability assessment used a 30-70 split between quantitative and qualitative analyses. The JCS intends to balance this to a 50-50 ratio and incorporate AI-driven analysis to develop a roadmap for a uniquely Korean capability assessment model.
The JCS is focusing on semi-automated AI models emphasizing ABM for the Korean capability assessment system. This approach allows for human-AI collaboration, with AI analyzing doctrines and specifications, while human experts validate and refine the results.
The preference for ABM stems from the limitations of traditional wargaming models, which rely heavily on existing data and struggle with long-term predictions.
ABM, however, can identify scenario weaknesses and forecast future force requirements by simulating entity interactions based on basic behavioral rules and parameters.
The U.S. military’s Knowledge Management and Decision Support (KM/DS) system is expected to serve as a blueprint for the Korean AI-assisted capability assessment system.
According to U.S. defense officials, KM/DS integrates dispersed weapon specifications, doctrines, and simulation data into a unified network during capability assessments. This platform enables AI to rapidly process and compare data, supporting command staff in making optimal decisions.
The U.S. has been utilizing this system since 2018 and plans to enhance it with advanced AI capabilities starting in 2025. The Korean capability assessment support system will draw inspiration from this model as it progresses.