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From ICBM Launches to Family Rivalry — Trouble Inside Pyongyang?

NorthKoreaFrom ICBM Launches to Family Rivalry — Trouble Inside Pyongyang?
Citizens are watching news about North Korea\'s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch drill in the Seoul Station waiting room 2023.2.19 / News1
Citizens are watching news about North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch drill in the Seoul Station waiting room 2023.2.19 / News1

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (Kim) may ignite a fierce power struggle between his daughter Ju-ae and her aunt, Kim Yo-jong, if he designates Ju-ae as his successor.

In an interview with the UK’s Telegraph published on February 14, Professor Ra Jong-il, a distinguished scholar at Dongguk University and former deputy director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service, predicted an inevitable clash between Ju-ae and her aunt, Kim Yo-jong, should Kim become incapacitated.

Professor Ra asserted that Ju-ae steps into her father’s role, she’ll likely face formidable opposition from her ambitious and ruthless aunt, Kim Yo-jong. The timing is crucial, but if Kim Yo-jong senses an opportunity to become the supreme leader, she won’t hesitate to seize it.

Experts suggest that if Kim’s health deteriorates, creating a power vacuum, Kim Yo-jong would swiftly move to realize her political ambitions.

Professor Ra emphasized that Kim Yo-jong has no reason to suppress her political aspirations, making a power struggle entirely plausible.

Professor Ra Jong-il, Distinguished Chair Professor at Dongguk University, is delivering remarks at the 25th Baek Bong-sin Thought Awards Ceremony (Reference Photo) 2023.12.19 / News1
Professor Ra Jong-il, Distinguished Chair Professor at Dongguk University, is delivering remarks at the 25th Baek Bong-sin Thought Awards Ceremony (Reference Photo) 2023.12.19 / News1

The Telegraph highlighted Kim Yo-jong’s substantial political and military backing within the Workers’ Party and North Korean military, noting her prominent role in shaping policies toward the U.S. and South Korea in recent years.

The publication analyzed that this robust power base could pose the most significant threat to the young and politically inexperienced Ju-ae.

On February 12, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly that Ju-ae appears to have progressed beyond mere successor training and has effectively entered the stage of being the designated successor. Since her debut at an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch site in January 2022, she has consistently accompanied Kim at major events, including military parades, weapons tests, and factory inspections.

The Telegraph suggested that Kim’s rush to establish a succession plan in his early 40s likely stems from concerns about his health.

Previously, the U.S.-based Stimson Center projected that in the event of Kim’s absence, a figure like Kim Yo-jong, who possesses a more established political foundation than Ju-ae, would likely seize power initially.

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