Despite North Korea and Russia promising economic cooperation through a recent summit, experts predict that it will be difficult to quickly achieve results due to North Korea’s restrictive nature and fear of openness.
Hyun Seung Soo, a senior researcher at the Unification Research Institute’s International Strategy Research Room, analyzed on the 25th in an online series titled Putin’s Visit to Pyongyang and the Prospects for North Korea-Russia Relations that “while it is certain that North Korea-Russia relations will continue or strengthen in the political and military fields, obstacles are expected in the economic field.” Hyun pointed out that the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement signed between North Korea and Russia on the 19th contained numerous provisions related to economic concurrence. Russia seems to intend to “neutralize sanctions against North Korea and gain mutual benefits through economic coordination with North Korea, and make North Korea a normal country.”
The key project between North Korea and Russia is presumed to be the dispatch of North Korean workers. There appears to be a growing need to utilize North Korean workers for the development of the Far East and Siberia regions, which are lacking in population and infrastructure within Russia, and for the post-war reconstruction of the four regions taken from Ukraine.
Hyun pointed out that “Diligent, regime-compliant, and above all, skilled North Korean workers are one of the most attractive items Russia wants to get from North Korea.” Tourism in North Korea is also considered a concept that North Korea and Russia will work on. North Korean tourism is a business that can collaborate without violating sanctions against North Korea. North Korea has been opening its borders to Russia only and accepting group tourists since February.
However, the prospects for the future tourism business are unbright. Hyun stressed, “Regardless of the Russian government’s judgment, the view of North Korea within Russian society is still not good,” adding, “The abnormal hereditary system, extreme closure, and backward economy are the general perceptions of North Korea among Russian people.”
Last month, a Russian travel agency had to cancel its North Korean group tour program due to a shortage of the minimum number of participants.
Hyun pointed out that there is already a considerable amount of skepticism about economic cooperation with North Korea within Russia. Russia, which has previously pursued economic cooperation with North Korea, knows from experience that it is not easy to cooperate economically because North Korea’s economic foundation is too weak. There is no market economy experience and almost no will or achievement for economic reform.
Hyun especially predicted, “North Korea’s chronic closure instinct and fear of openness could tire Russia,” emphasizing, “If North Korea insists on an aid-oriented economic relationship as in the past, it will be difficult for Russia to accept it indefinitely.”
He added, “The success or failure of North Korea-Russia economic cooperation depends on whether North Korea can match Russia’s demands and speed.”
In this treaty, North Korea and Russia agreed to build a bridge connecting the North Korean city of Najin and the Russian region of Hasan by car. This project has been under negotiation between North Korea and Russia since 2015, but there has been no progress.
Putin has stated his intention to invite North Korea to revive the financial-economic community that does not involve dollars and the currencies of Western countries as a response to U.S. financial sanctions. However, since the trade volume between North Korea and Russia does not even reach $50 million, it is expected that it will be difficult to quickly achieve results in the economic relationship.