U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that despite ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, the likelihood of a rapid collapse of the Iranian regime remains low.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that three sources familiar with the matter revealed recent U.S. intelligence analyses indicate the Iranian leadership maintains its grip on power, with no immediate risk of regime collapse.
The sources stated that multiple intelligence reports consistently show the Iranian regime is not facing an existential crisis and continues to exercise control over its population. The latest assessment was reportedly compiled within the past few days.
The U.S. and Israel have been conducting military strikes against Iran since February 28. These operations resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with dozens of high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and government officials.
However, U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran’s power structure remains intact. Following Khamenei’s death, the Assembly of Experts, Iran’s clerical body, elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader.
Even within the Israeli government, there is skepticism about whether this conflict will lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime. A senior Israeli official told Reuters there’s no guarantee that this war will necessarily result in the fall of the theocracy.
Analysts note, however, that the situation remains fluid, leaving open the possibility of shifts in Iran’s internal political landscape.
Since the outbreak of hostilities, the U.S. and Israel have focused their attacks on Iran’s air defense systems, nuclear facilities, and military command structures. While President Donald Trump initially urged the Iranian people to seize control of their government, senior administration officials later clarified that regime change is not the objective.
For the Iranian regime to actually collapse, additional factors such as a large-scale ground invasion or a widespread internal uprising would likely be necessary. However, the probability of U.S. ground troop involvement appears low.
The U.S. has also explored the potential for Iranian opposition forces to take military action. Discussions reportedly included scenarios where Iranian Kurdish militias based in northern Iraq could advance into western Iran to engage security forces.
However, U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly assess that Kurdish armed groups lack the manpower and weaponry to sustain prolonged combat against Iranian security forces.
In an interview, Abdulla Mohtadi, leader of the Kurdish political organization Komala, claimed that tens of thousands of young people are prepared to take up arms if U.S. support is provided. However, the U.S. government is currently said to be ruling out the option of Kurdish rebels entering Iranian territory.