The number of people infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) worldwide is expected to reach its peak of 444 million in 2039 and then gradually decline, according to a recent study.
HIV infection destroys the immune system, potentially leading to AIDS. While sexual contact is often considered the primary transmission route, AIDS can also spread from infected mothers during childbirth or through blood transfusions. The incubation period ranges from six months to 15 years, and some infected individuals may remain asymptomatic.
Symptoms such as fever, sore throat, and fatigue may appear during the early stages of infection. Without proper treatment, this can progress to conditions like tuberculosis, skin diseases, weight loss, chronic diarrhea, and anemia. If left untreated, the patient typically dies within one to three years. However, with antiretroviral therapy, the condition can be managed effectively, allowing the patient to live a life expectancy comparable to the general population.
As reported on Monday by the medical community, researchers from medical schools in 204 countries analyzed age- and gender-specific data on HIV infections, deaths, and estimates for each region from 1990 to 2021.
The study found that new HIV infections worldwide increased dramatically from 2.11 million in 2010 to 165 million in 2021. Conversely, HIV-related deaths decreased by about 39.7%, from 11.9 million in 2010 to 718,000 in 2021.
The regions with the most significant reductions in HIV incidence and mortality rates were Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. However, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa saw increases in HIV incidence and mortality rates.
The area where individuals had the highest lifetime probability of contracting HIV was found to be Sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, this rate decreased from 21.8% in 1995 to 8.7% in 2021.
The researchers predict that in the upcoming year, there will be approximately 143 million people living with HIV and 615,000 HIV-related deaths worldwide.
On September 26, 2012, the United Nations announced Sustainable Development Goal(SDG) 3.3, aiming to end epidemics like AIDS and tuberculosis by 2030.
The researchers noted that while most countries in 2010 set a goal to reduce HIV incidence and related mortality by 90% compared to 2010 levels by 2030, few are expected to achieve this target.
They predict that HIV infections will peak at 444 million in 2039 before gradually declining, with an estimated 434 million infections by 2050.
Meanwhile, the findings of this study were published in the December issue of the international journal The Lancet. HIV.