A new forecast suggests China’s Organic Light-Emitting Diode (OLED) production capacity will overtake South Korea’s by 2029.
Counterpoint Research released these findings on Thursday in their Quarterly Display Equipment Investment and Market Share Report for Q1 2026.
The report projects a 2% increase in global display production capacity for 2026 compared to the previous year.
OLED production capacity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5% from 2025 to 2030, significantly outpacing the 2% growth rate for Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) during the same period.
While OLED adoption continues to expand in mobile and information technology (IT) devices, the transition in larger displays, including televisions (TVs), is anticipated to be more gradual.
Despite the gradual increase in OLED market share over the medium to long term, LCDs are likely to remain dominant in overall production capacity.
The report predicts LCDs will maintain about 90% of total production capacity through 2030, surpassing OLED capacity throughout the forecast period.
Notably, China’s OLED production capacity, which has historically trailed South Korea’s, is set to rapidly increase its market share. This growth is fueled by ongoing investments and aggressive expansions, potentially allowing China to surpass South Korea by 2029.
Lee Jae-ho, a research analyst at Counterpoint Research, explained this shift: Chinese panel manufacturers are leveraging government support to invest in new G8.7 OLED facilities with advanced deposition technologies. Meanwhile, South Korea is focusing on maintaining production capacity through strategic investments in new technologies.
Lee added that in 2023, South Korea’s OLED market share was 13% higher than China’s. However, by 2029, China is likely to take a slight lead. While South Korea has OLED capacity for mobile, IT, and TVs, its expansion investments are more measured compared to China’s aggressive approach.
He noted that investments in additional processes for features like privacy modes or new technologies don’t necessarily increase production capacity.
Lee concluded that although South Korea currently leads in OLED technology, the LCD industry has shown them that maintaining a competitive edge solely through technological prowess has its limits, especially if China continues to advance in terms of quantity. It hopes South Korean display manufacturers can maintain their OLED leadership through continued innovation and timely investments.